Breaking news! La recession est mort. RIP
It must be true; it was reported yesterday in both the Boston Globe and the WSJ.
Not surprisingly, the subheading of most fin-du-recession articles is something like "How come we aren't celebrating yet?"
Perhaps the public excitement about the announcement is tempered by the huge numbers of people still looking for work and the dismal outlook that predicts sluggish economic growth. Looming deficits, and lackluster housing demand. War. Supergerms. Fear of Bedbugs.
Does anyone else think it is odd that the group that tracks recessions took 14 months to figure out that the 18month recession technically began in December 2007 ended June of 2009 - last year!
In any line of work other than Economics, people would fire at you if you handed in your weekly status report fourteen months late.
The procrastinating Economic researchers defend the lag time by pointing out that it takes a lot of time and data to compile the report.
I would respond by saying, "You're fired!"
The report is obviously meaningless, useless and irrelevent. ( Just like the financial reports you get in the mail from your IRA mutual funds. In April you get a report on the period ended in January. How is that useful?)
"News" is supposed to be timely. Technical pronouncements about the state of the economy are not worthy of headlines, but may be of interest to those who enjoy semantic squabbles.
This set of definitions works for me:
Recession: when your neighbor is out of work
Depression: When you are out of work.
=============
More useful news:
Texting while driving is illegal in Massachusetts starting next month. Everyone should get busy texting and driving before it becomes a crime. I am updating this blog from my Blackberry driving 75 miles an hours,
eating a hot dog and not wearing my seatbelt. I don't see what the big pro__________________
{signal interrupted}
9/22/2010
9/19/2010
The Multitasking Myth
We hear it all the time. People on their Iphones apologizing for this or that thing they overlooked or forgot to do. They excuse the lapse, blaming their "crazy-busy" life styles as though the hectic craziness was inflicted on them, instead of a choice they have made voluntarily.
These same people frequently talk about how good they are at multitasking. But, if they could get out of their muddled heads for just a few minutes, they might realize that, in fact, they are not so good at multitasking. In reality, they just do a lot of things marginally well.
Granted, most of my own research on human behavior is done waiting in line at Starbucks, but some people who actually get paid to study human behavior, have concluded that so-called multi-taskers are not as efficient as they think they are. Chances are you are just skimming at this very moment, but if you are interested enough you might check-out what real journalists and researchers are saying.
What we call “multitasking” is really the ability to switch between a number of tasks quickly. The term was first applied to computer processors, which operate sequentially at such a high speed that designers invented a method of switching tasks (they called it multiplexing in the early days) to give the impression of multiple simultaneous actions.
If you understand bandwidth then you can easily see how the concept works. Your cable or FIOS router manages all the signals that are traveling down the same wire and converts them into video pixels, sound and text. Bandwidth is really a function of speed. In the old days, modems could only handle slow speeds. Nowadays they are touting 4G networks, meaning that more crap gets rammed through the same wire only incredibly faster.
Most of us are born with only one processor. In some of us, that processor is capable of faster speeds. This explains Mensa types. They are great at chess and crossword puzzles , but maybe not so good at doing a job that requires sociability, contextual cognition or persuasive skills. IQ is really a measure of how fast the processor is, not how much fun it is to be around.
So, multitasking is really the ability to switch focus from one thing to another very quickly. The problem is that - unlike the digital computer - the human brain needs time to refocus at the same level it was concentrating before the interruption.
You see examples of this all the time when you are in a conversation with someone. Let’s say you on a phone conversation discussing a book. The other person says:
Studies have shown something we intuitively know: as we age, the recovery time to re-focus is even longer, especially in males.
Ah, the football game has started, time for me to interrupt myself and do some experimental multi-tasking. By which I mean watching the Game while simultaneously sipping a frosty Sierra Nevada.
These same people frequently talk about how good they are at multitasking. But, if they could get out of their muddled heads for just a few minutes, they might realize that, in fact, they are not so good at multitasking. In reality, they just do a lot of things marginally well.
Granted, most of my own research on human behavior is done waiting in line at Starbucks, but some people who actually get paid to study human behavior, have concluded that so-called multi-taskers are not as efficient as they think they are. Chances are you are just skimming at this very moment, but if you are interested enough you might check-out what real journalists and researchers are saying.
Dr. Edward Hallowell, a Massachusetts-based psychiatrist who specializes in the treatment of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and has written a book with the self-explanatory title CrazyBusy, has been offering therapies to combat extreme multitasking for years; in his book he calls multitasking a “mythical activity in which people believe they can perform two or more tasks simultaneously.” In a 2005 article, he described a new condition, “Attention Deficit Trait,” which he claims is rampant in the business world.
What we call “multitasking” is really the ability to switch between a number of tasks quickly. The term was first applied to computer processors, which operate sequentially at such a high speed that designers invented a method of switching tasks (they called it multiplexing in the early days) to give the impression of multiple simultaneous actions.
If you understand bandwidth then you can easily see how the concept works. Your cable or FIOS router manages all the signals that are traveling down the same wire and converts them into video pixels, sound and text. Bandwidth is really a function of speed. In the old days, modems could only handle slow speeds. Nowadays they are touting 4G networks, meaning that more crap gets rammed through the same wire only incredibly faster.
Most of us are born with only one processor. In some of us, that processor is capable of faster speeds. This explains Mensa types. They are great at chess and crossword puzzles , but maybe not so good at doing a job that requires sociability, contextual cognition or persuasive skills. IQ is really a measure of how fast the processor is, not how much fun it is to be around.
So, multitasking is really the ability to switch focus from one thing to another very quickly. The problem is that - unlike the digital computer - the human brain needs time to refocus at the same level it was concentrating before the interruption.
You see examples of this all the time when you are in a conversation with someone. Let’s say you on a phone conversation discussing a book. The other person says:
“John Irving is a fine writer, but he is so manipulative.Because of the interruptions, you did not find out what the other person was going to say about John Irving’s penchant for murdering or maiming his best characters. Then, you got distracted by your own incoming e-mail. Because the human brain is slow to re-focus on the book topic, the conversation ended before the information was communicated.
“What do you mean?
“Well he gets you to fall in love with his characters and then… oops wait a sec I need to take this call…
While waiting you absently go through your e-mail and see that you have a new message, so you click on it..
“Sorry about that. Where was I?”
“Ah, Let’s see, we were talking about books I think..”
“Yes... books. Who has time for books anymore? I am swamped here so I need to get back to work. it’s been fun talking with you.”
“Ok, so long”
Studies have shown something we intuitively know: as we age, the recovery time to re-focus is even longer, especially in males.
Ah, the football game has started, time for me to interrupt myself and do some experimental multi-tasking. By which I mean watching the Game while simultaneously sipping a frosty Sierra Nevada.
9/16/2010
The Case for Procrastination
For several years now, I have been working on an essay titled “The Case for Procrastination.” It takes issue with our over planned and goal oriented society. It examines the deleterious effects of the crazy-busy lives of people – especially those who are working at a career and raising families – who never have time to “Stop and smell the roses”.
I have a few paragraphs completed, but I doubt that I’ll get to it in the foreseeable future. Lots of other stuff to do that seems more interesting right now.
The unfinished essay examines procrastination as a personal style rather than a chronic illness that some people seem to inherit. (I have no scientific evidence that procrastination is inherited. I just believe it to be so after years of observing my siblings and myself. We are inveterate and practiced procrastinators.)
Successful procrastinators tend to work exceedingly well under the pressure of an imminent deadline.
They may put things off until the last minute but they tend to work quite efficiently during that last minute. This is why I can start working on my tax returns on April 14 and finish under the deadline. I'm sure there are other positive things to say about procrastinators, and when I think of them I will finish the essay, I promise....
There are certain luxuries appertaining to being a retired, life-long procrastinator. One can choose to adopt an un-hurried approach to goals. (Some people who know me may be saying to themselves Hey Mr. No-sense-of-urgency, what’s new? What’s new is that now I don’t hurry on my own time. I don’t feel the same pressure as I would if I had to report my activities to a boss. )
I believe that the ability to remain calm in the face of zipping time is actually a sign of wisdom. Who needs to rush around getting-things-done when there will always be more things to be done? Young people do not have the acquired wisdom to recognize this fact of life. They imagine that if they rush and get stuff done, they will have earned the chill-time to take an afternoon off to play golf or sit on the deck with a trashy novel.
But seldom do working people actually realize those imagined rewards because work will not let up on you. Getting things done begets more things, The boss – seeing that you have a capacity for getting lots of things done, sends more things to your inbox. In a business there is no respite. Sure there are rewards. You get more pay, and you inevitably get promoted to a position of increased responsibility – which results in even more demands on your available time. If you do get to the golf course or weekend getaway, you must be Blackberried-up and always "on-call."
There is always a price tag on anything you get in an organization: usually, the price of perks and rewards is the increasing trade-off of your personal time. Successful people recognize this trade-off as a Faustian deal with the devil, and they assure themselves that they will repair the damaged relationships and health if they can survive long enough to get that well-earned retirement. Sadly for them, this strategy does not work. The halls of retirement are filled with once successful executives who are perplexed to find themselves estranged from the home and family they always believed they were working to support.
Looking back, I am not sorry that I took the less stressful road - not that I had a choice, mind you. When I was born, three weeks past the forecasted due date, weighing-in at nearly 11 pounds, the doctor gravely pointed-out to my mother, "He was born without a sense of urgency."
I have a few paragraphs completed, but I doubt that I’ll get to it in the foreseeable future. Lots of other stuff to do that seems more interesting right now.
The unfinished essay examines procrastination as a personal style rather than a chronic illness that some people seem to inherit. (I have no scientific evidence that procrastination is inherited. I just believe it to be so after years of observing my siblings and myself. We are inveterate and practiced procrastinators.)
Successful procrastinators tend to work exceedingly well under the pressure of an imminent deadline.
They may put things off until the last minute but they tend to work quite efficiently during that last minute. This is why I can start working on my tax returns on April 14 and finish under the deadline. I'm sure there are other positive things to say about procrastinators, and when I think of them I will finish the essay, I promise....
There are certain luxuries appertaining to being a retired, life-long procrastinator. One can choose to adopt an un-hurried approach to goals. (Some people who know me may be saying to themselves Hey Mr. No-sense-of-urgency, what’s new? What’s new is that now I don’t hurry on my own time. I don’t feel the same pressure as I would if I had to report my activities to a boss. )
I believe that the ability to remain calm in the face of zipping time is actually a sign of wisdom. Who needs to rush around getting-things-done when there will always be more things to be done? Young people do not have the acquired wisdom to recognize this fact of life. They imagine that if they rush and get stuff done, they will have earned the chill-time to take an afternoon off to play golf or sit on the deck with a trashy novel.
But seldom do working people actually realize those imagined rewards because work will not let up on you. Getting things done begets more things, The boss – seeing that you have a capacity for getting lots of things done, sends more things to your inbox. In a business there is no respite. Sure there are rewards. You get more pay, and you inevitably get promoted to a position of increased responsibility – which results in even more demands on your available time. If you do get to the golf course or weekend getaway, you must be Blackberried-up and always "on-call."
There is always a price tag on anything you get in an organization: usually, the price of perks and rewards is the increasing trade-off of your personal time. Successful people recognize this trade-off as a Faustian deal with the devil, and they assure themselves that they will repair the damaged relationships and health if they can survive long enough to get that well-earned retirement. Sadly for them, this strategy does not work. The halls of retirement are filled with once successful executives who are perplexed to find themselves estranged from the home and family they always believed they were working to support.
Looking back, I am not sorry that I took the less stressful road - not that I had a choice, mind you. When I was born, three weeks past the forecasted due date, weighing-in at nearly 11 pounds, the doctor gravely pointed-out to my mother, "He was born without a sense of urgency."
9/13/2010
Naming Names: My NO VOTE List
Why is it against the law to stalk an attractive woman, make unwanted phone calls and send unwanted pictures of yourself to her in the mail, but it is OK for political candidates to invade your privacy, phone and mailbox? I've decided not to vote for the following candidates on the grounds of harassment.
Mike Lake - today I got a robocall from his MOTHER! Jesus H Christ! If I had a taser I'd have given her 20,000 volts, I swear.
Charles Rudnick - I have received between a dozen and twenty pieces in the mail (all of which went IMMEDIATELY into the recycle pile); also his campaign has called the house between 5 and 7 times. At first I was polite, then I demanded to be removed from the call list. If he is wasting all this money in an inefficient attempt to get elected, how can he be trusted when he's spending my money?
If I hear one more word from him, I will get a lawn sign supporting Cynthia Creem, the incumbent.
We need to discourage this annoying and intrusive campaigning. Anyone else who robocalls me between now and election day gets added to the NO VOTE list. Join me in throwing the rascals out of...our voicemail boxes.
Mike Lake - today I got a robocall from his MOTHER! Jesus H Christ! If I had a taser I'd have given her 20,000 volts, I swear.
Charles Rudnick - I have received between a dozen and twenty pieces in the mail (all of which went IMMEDIATELY into the recycle pile); also his campaign has called the house between 5 and 7 times. At first I was polite, then I demanded to be removed from the call list. If he is wasting all this money in an inefficient attempt to get elected, how can he be trusted when he's spending my money?
If I hear one more word from him, I will get a lawn sign supporting Cynthia Creem, the incumbent.
We need to discourage this annoying and intrusive campaigning. Anyone else who robocalls me between now and election day gets added to the NO VOTE list. Join me in throwing the rascals out of...our voicemail boxes.
9/11/2010
Misunderstandings
The other day there was a small blurb in the newspaper, and virtually no mention on the evening news: Castro: Cuba's communism 'doesn't even work for us anymore'
I thought to myself: That's something you don't read everyday.
After 50 years since the revolution in Cuba, Fidel Castro seemed to concede that totalitarianism is a failure. He calls it the "Cuban model," referring to the government controlling every aspect of the economic system. Hey Fidel, I thought, welcome to reality; most of the world economies have known all along that Communism doesn't work. And what is this "anymore" crap. It never did work for Cuba. They always depended on economic aid from other totalitarian regimes.
But not so fast Mr Blog Guy, reality, it seems is in the mind of the beholder.
Yesterday, Castro, 84 years old (and, apparently, back on his meds) stated that his words had been misunderstood.
Castro claims that his recent comment that Cuba’s economic model did not work was badly understood and that what he really meant was that "capitalism did not work."
Aha!
The lesson here is that an Ideologue cannot be trusted to see the truth, because they will disregard facts that do not support their belief. I think it is called "cognitive dissonance."
The lyrics of the song say "Don't fall in love with a dreamer..." Perhaps it would have been better said to advise, "Don't fall in love with your dream. Period".
I thought to myself: That's something you don't read everyday.
After 50 years since the revolution in Cuba, Fidel Castro seemed to concede that totalitarianism is a failure. He calls it the "Cuban model," referring to the government controlling every aspect of the economic system. Hey Fidel, I thought, welcome to reality; most of the world economies have known all along that Communism doesn't work. And what is this "anymore" crap. It never did work for Cuba. They always depended on economic aid from other totalitarian regimes.
But not so fast Mr Blog Guy, reality, it seems is in the mind of the beholder.
Yesterday, Castro, 84 years old (and, apparently, back on his meds) stated that his words had been misunderstood.
Castro claims that his recent comment that Cuba’s economic model did not work was badly understood and that what he really meant was that "capitalism did not work."
Aha!
The lesson here is that an Ideologue cannot be trusted to see the truth, because they will disregard facts that do not support their belief. I think it is called "cognitive dissonance."
The lyrics of the song say "Don't fall in love with a dreamer..." Perhaps it would have been better said to advise, "Don't fall in love with your dream. Period".
9/07/2010
The General is Shooting Blanks
When I first heard that some redneck preacher in Florida has announced his plan to burn a copy of the Quran on 9-11 as a protest against Islamic fundamentalists attack in 2001 against the World Trade Center Towers and the Pentagon, I thought, "What a douche-bag!"
I didn't think much of it, since we have a tradition of free speech in this country. Everyone is permitted to make a perfect asshole out of himself. They can ignite books, pictures, flags whatever to make a point. Even if it pisses-off someone else.
I do not approve of burning books and that includes religious books. It would arouse less of an outcry from fellow citizens (and make more sense to me) if he could capture a terrorist commiting an act of terror and burn him instead of a book.
But the book is a symbol, and predictably, the reaction from Muslims in Kabul is "Death To America."
Now we even have General Petraeus calling for a cancellation of the book burning saying that it puts American military at risk. (Like, what? they are not at risk 24X7 ?)
We cannot stifle the right of that dumbass to engage in lawful symbolic protest. The rights of free speech were paid for by the blood of patriots. We cannot allow ourselves to be extorted or blackmailed because of the fear of reaction from an ignorant mob. In fact, such reaction actually supports the contentions of those who would paint all Muslims with a single brush.
To retreat from our tradition of free speech because we fear the consequences of ignorance is to toss our traditions into the dustbin of history. And, we will discover the steep slope to subjugation by the ministers of fear, well-lubricated.
I didn't think much of it, since we have a tradition of free speech in this country. Everyone is permitted to make a perfect asshole out of himself. They can ignite books, pictures, flags whatever to make a point. Even if it pisses-off someone else.
I do not approve of burning books and that includes religious books. It would arouse less of an outcry from fellow citizens (and make more sense to me) if he could capture a terrorist commiting an act of terror and burn him instead of a book.
But the book is a symbol, and predictably, the reaction from Muslims in Kabul is "Death To America."
Now we even have General Petraeus calling for a cancellation of the book burning saying that it puts American military at risk. (Like, what? they are not at risk 24X7 ?)
"I am very concerned by the potential repercussions of the possible (Quran) burning. Even the rumor that it might take place has sparked demonstrations such as the one that took place in Kabul yesterday," Petraeus said in his message. "Were the actual burning to take place, the safety of our soldiers and civilians would be put in jeopardy and accomplishment of the mission would be made more difficultI think we should consider what is wrong with a religion when just the expectation of a dumbass act of one individual causes thousands to riot and rampage. Islamists blow stuff up all the time, including religious symbols that they find displeasing. How is that fair or just?
We cannot stifle the right of that dumbass to engage in lawful symbolic protest. The rights of free speech were paid for by the blood of patriots. We cannot allow ourselves to be extorted or blackmailed because of the fear of reaction from an ignorant mob. In fact, such reaction actually supports the contentions of those who would paint all Muslims with a single brush.
To retreat from our tradition of free speech because we fear the consequences of ignorance is to toss our traditions into the dustbin of history. And, we will discover the steep slope to subjugation by the ministers of fear, well-lubricated.
Labored Thoughts
Some of the newcomers to this blog may have been misled by the use of the term "afterlife" in the blog description. If you thought I was talking about some spiritual or cosmic afterlife, I apologize (- - for your poor reading skills. Really, you must learn to read more carefully.)
No, afterlife, in this context, refers to that phase of life between the time you surrender the responsibilities and commitment to The Job, The Career, the Kids, the Unfinished Novel and your untimely death. Unlike the promised heaven or hell that your preachers have guaranteed to be the reward for your behavior in this life, this blog uses the term to allude to the shadowy existence of people (such as I) who have retired from the hustle and bustle of everyday commerce, the classroom or even the mind-shredding boredom of a career spend nuzzling the teat of the government.
Retirement and Heaven may seem to be synonymous for many working stiffs, as they fantasize about the Rewards that surely must await those who have patiently endured the slings and arrows of the average job. The gauzy image of that much anticipated state of Nirvana may populate the daydreams of countless oppressed and misused worker bees as they toil under the debt-fueled fear of losing this crappy job ( -- undoubtedly made even crappier by some micromanaging nitpicker.)
In the work-a-day world, time is money; you are typically paid commensurate with the amount of time you spend in the office. You get accustomed to the idea that someone values your time. However, as you settle into the afterlife, you gradually realize that your time has zero value to others. No one pays you for reading the newspapers while dawdling over a leisurely breakfast. There is no bonus for biggest fish. Your below- par performance at the links may actually require you to buy the beers for the other duffers. No one calls from the office disturbing you at inconvenient moments with career threatening emergencies.
Work is largely regarded by American society as a no-fault excuse to avoid social and familial obligations. ("Gee I'd love to go over and see the 300 photos of your niece's baby shower, but, well I am just slammed here at the office. Maybe another time...") But, now that you do not have work as a refuge, you are assailed by family and friends who need a favor or a spouse who demands that you accompany them on errands.
So, young retiree wanabees, I am afraid I must give it to you straight on this Labor Day. You load sixteen tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt. Then you retire and spend most of the time checking your retirement nest egg, wondering when the shitty economy is going to start being over. And, hoping that the government can stay solvent and keep sending you that anticipated SS check.
Instead of enjoying your free time with travel, fishing and playing golf, you spend a third of your week at the doctors office getting looked at, prodded and listened to. The exams become ever so much more intimate each year. Or if it is not your ass that the doc has his finger up, you are driving someone else to his-or-her appointment. (No one hesitates to ask you for a ride, since you are retired and probably have nothing better to do.)
No, afterlife, in this context, refers to that phase of life between the time you surrender the responsibilities and commitment to The Job, The Career, the Kids, the Unfinished Novel and your untimely death. Unlike the promised heaven or hell that your preachers have guaranteed to be the reward for your behavior in this life, this blog uses the term to allude to the shadowy existence of people (such as I) who have retired from the hustle and bustle of everyday commerce, the classroom or even the mind-shredding boredom of a career spend nuzzling the teat of the government.
Retirement and Heaven may seem to be synonymous for many working stiffs, as they fantasize about the Rewards that surely must await those who have patiently endured the slings and arrows of the average job. The gauzy image of that much anticipated state of Nirvana may populate the daydreams of countless oppressed and misused worker bees as they toil under the debt-fueled fear of losing this crappy job ( -- undoubtedly made even crappier by some micromanaging nitpicker.)
In the work-a-day world, time is money; you are typically paid commensurate with the amount of time you spend in the office. You get accustomed to the idea that someone values your time. However, as you settle into the afterlife, you gradually realize that your time has zero value to others. No one pays you for reading the newspapers while dawdling over a leisurely breakfast. There is no bonus for biggest fish. Your below- par performance at the links may actually require you to buy the beers for the other duffers. No one calls from the office disturbing you at inconvenient moments with career threatening emergencies.
Work is largely regarded by American society as a no-fault excuse to avoid social and familial obligations. ("Gee I'd love to go over and see the 300 photos of your niece's baby shower, but, well I am just slammed here at the office. Maybe another time...") But, now that you do not have work as a refuge, you are assailed by family and friends who need a favor or a spouse who demands that you accompany them on errands.
So, young retiree wanabees, I am afraid I must give it to you straight on this Labor Day. You load sixteen tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt. Then you retire and spend most of the time checking your retirement nest egg, wondering when the shitty economy is going to start being over. And, hoping that the government can stay solvent and keep sending you that anticipated SS check.
Instead of enjoying your free time with travel, fishing and playing golf, you spend a third of your week at the doctors office getting looked at, prodded and listened to. The exams become ever so much more intimate each year. Or if it is not your ass that the doc has his finger up, you are driving someone else to his-or-her appointment. (No one hesitates to ask you for a ride, since you are retired and probably have nothing better to do.)
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